Get off the ledge: financial planning in a crisis

Very surprised dogIt just won’t do any good—no matter what action you can think of, it’s already too late. You couldn’t see it coming, nor could you act fast enough to stop anything. As Dorothy Parker said, you may as well live.

In my more-than-a-decade of telling people they need an emergency fund, never did I think everyone would need an emergency fund at the same time. But such are the times we are living in. And if you have that emergency fund, you now have the freedom to pat yourself on the back and do absolutely nothing.  The working person’s emergency fund should carry you through an interruption in pay checks, even for a significant amount of time. Since you’re going to be at home, you probably won’t be putting a lot of discretionary money into restaurants, air travel, etc. No, this isn’t the happiest news, but adaptability is one of the secrets to a satisfied life.

The retired person’s emergency fund should be larger—2 years. Call it the bucket strategy if you wish, but that cash should carry you into a recovery. Maybe the market won’t be back to where it was, but it’s extremely likely that it will be better than it’s been for the last few weeks. Sure, some things that are passed up never come back—especially services. We might schedule them again, but the missed time is probably gone. On the other hand, no one’s shoes, or tv, or car lasts forever. Eventually consumer demand will swing back up.

I’ve been invested for at least 40 years now, and I’ve seen numerous times where pundits thought the world was coming to an end. Other things I’ve heard way more than once:

  • This time it’s different (Only in the specific details, not in the fact of a downturn or reaction to it)
  • I want to sell everything, wait for the market to bottom, then jump back in (How will you know?)
  • It may never come back (Well, then prices will go down since we’re all in the same boat)
  • I need a much more conservative portfolio (too late on that one)

And in about a year or two…

  • Gosh, I wish I would have bought when the market was down
  • I stayed in cash but then everything took off and I missed it

When the market is high, no one wants to take profits because things could go higher. When it’s down, no one wants to buy because things could go lower. So, it’s never a good time.

No matter what you regret, you can never redo the past. All you can do is learn from it, with honest assessment and perhaps revision. Maybe you’d forgotten what it felt like in 2007-2009, when the S&P dropped to 676—it closed at 2,386 today). Maybe you were too young then to have any money. Maybe you’ve found out that in fact you are far more risk averse than you expected, and when things get boring again, you may want to adjust your portfolio. In the event that you are indeed flush with cash, and can take the risk, there are bargains to be had.

The correct portfolio has the correct balance FOR YOU. If you find you are having heart palpitations, either it wasn’t right for you or you need to get off the screens and go for a walk. Your dog is waiting for you.

 

 

Posted in General Financial Planning, Investment Planning and tagged , , , .

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