My Economic Forecast for 2012

 

The Tooth Fairy Tats 2000

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What’s ahead for the market in 2012? What hot stocks, or sectors, or investment vehicles should you put your money in? Well, I have the inside dope and I’m going to tell you…

I have absolutely no idea. If we look at the record for all the star pundits of 2011, they have publicly proven that THEY had absolutely no idea either. I mean, look at Bill Gross (Pimco) or John Corzine (MF Global)—all they are is living proof that having a good education, an insider view, and probably a pretty fair IQ can help you lose investors a lot of money and maybe get you a free ticket to jail. But hey, I ask people to trust me on investment recommendations. Gee, I’ll even move your money around for you. So where do I get off?

I like to be able to look myself in the mirror in the morning. Okay, no photographers are ever going to greet me when I get out of my limo (at least I hope so, about the photographers, not the limo), but I do like to be able to answer my phone without fear of enraged clients. So, here’s my best advice—don’t follow the advice of some know-it-all in a custom-made suit. Even if they’re nice. Nobody can second guess the market, but research gives us some pretty good guidelines on what will work, and so did Burton Malkiel in his Wall Street Journal column this morning, and in his great book A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Ready? I can hear the snoring already. Get rid of your individual stocks, your stupid market timing ideas, your addled day trading schemes, your charting for market moves, yadda-yadda. Buy a portfolio of passively managed index funds. That means, find no-load mutual funds (the kind your friendly neighborhood stock shark, er, broker DOES NOT SELL) pegged to a recognizable index like the S&P, total bond market, etc. (not some goofball index made up by some crazy mutual fund company pitching micro-ETFs), distribute your dough in reasonable proportions based on how much risk you can tolerate, your age, and how soon you need how much of the money, and rebalance once a year. Okay, you can go back to sleep now.

The details on this are that you need to pick a decent mix of the type of investments, and research says you’ll do better if your small-company fund has a value tilt (meaning undervalued or out of favor companies rather than market-darling “growth” companies). But the diversification itself is what balances out the highs and lows (and maybe not the precise kinds of assets, although we try). The rebalancing causes you to sell the good stuff and buy the crap. Or if I were nicer, I’d say that means sell high and buy low, and over the long term, that makes more money. As Malkiel points out, emerging markets, non-U.S. markets, and natural resources have been the crap this year, so take a look at those when you rebalance, if they’re part of your asset allocation plan.

Establish a plan based on good research, stick to it, and rebalance. Some of this stuff will do well in 2012, and some will crash like a ten pound roast falling out of your freezer. That I can guarantee. The key is, more of it should do better than do worse, or at least the whole portfolio (as in 2008-2009) should do less badly than those of your “investment savvy” friends. Write this on your bathroom mirror: If it sounds too good to be true, IT IS. If it sounds about right, cautious but plausible, with a controlled margin for error, well, now you’re in the real world. There’s no tooth fairy, either. Slow and steady, you’ll do fine. Sleep well and happy new year.

Goals! resolutions, not so much

 

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I don’t have time for resolutions, but if I did, probably the first one would be to slow down a little. But like most of us, I’m always looking over my shoulder to see whether the bill collectors, overdue work tasks, needs of my kid-dog-cats-friends, excess pounds, etc. are catching up with me. Generally, they’ve outrun me. However, there is something I do every year during the last week of December (and finish up the first week of January, because, well, I’m late again).

I write down goals and I write myself an evaluation of the past year’s goals. I urge you to consider trying this—it’s not the goals, it’s the writing it down that matters. Why? Because too many of us get into trouble, financially and otherwise, by the natural human tendency to avoid the bad news.  I would love to find that if I ignore things, they would go away. While this occasionally works with a part of the junk in my in-box, in general ignoring things or failing to face them causes them to grow into much bigger problems. To whit: ignore thinking about your retirement and along about 55 you’ll have a huge and nearly intractable problem. Ignore the real cost of your house, your car, or your children’s education and you’ll give yourself a whopping headache if not a full blown disaster.

Even if you think there’s nothing you can do, writing goals down forces you to 1)face the facts, 2)gather your records,  3)see what needs solving and 4)if you’re lucky, gain some insight and ideas. I can still hear one of my professors intoning, “Goals must be measurable: set objectives which can be evaluated.” He was speaking of governments (and ours could use that advice), but it’s a good policy personally. So, for example, don’t set a goal of saving more. Set a goal to save 10% (or 5% or $10) from each pay period. Better yet, set it up to be automatically withdrawn from your check or bank account.

One of my goals is to automate everything possible.  Since I often feel that my head will explode from details, I’m trying to make a good decision once, and then ensure that that decision operates on its own, with no further choice from me. So, in the financial world, if you automate your savings, you have some likelihood of actually having money to invest down the road. Then, you set your “investment policy”—the right mix of investments designed to get you to your financial goals. And once you’ve thought that through (perhaps with your financial advisor), you automate THAT—with rebalancing out of all the crummy investments and into a decent mix. From that point on, you’re automated and you know where to put savings, and you won’t be prey to the newest hot idea from your neighborhood stock broker, insurance agent, or other commissioned salesperson trolling for suckers.

Resolutions generally engender guilt, but that has little place in real achievement. I evaluate last year not to beat myself up on the (inevitably) huge amount of goals that were not met, but to try to understand why they did not come about, what could be done to improve in the future, and to get better at allocating time and resources. I firmly believe in dreaming big, and am happy to see, each year, that there is a satisfying amount of things that were achieved. Also, I break down goals into business, financial, personal, and family, and I can get a good picture of what has been given too much attention, and what, not enough.

So, take a look. Whatever you’re avoiding probably isn’t going away. On the other hand, making a plan wrests some control away from random forces and into your hands. We can’t fix everything, but we can control the stuff that depends on our own efforts. Make that effort and best wishes for a prosperous new year.

 

 

Top financial books

BERLIN, GERMANY - AUGUST 25:  Books for guests...

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It’s the holiday season and you’ll probably get a ton of books, but here’s a few you should buy for yourself, or better yet, get them out of the library. I guarantee you’ll be in better financial shape this time next year if you read a few of these. Am I afraid that you’ll know so much it’ll put me out of business? No—the more you know, the more a planner can help you customize the information to your individual situation and specific goals. So, curl up and read as you make your new year’s resolutions.

Your Money or Your Life by Joe Dominguez & Vicki Robin

Primer on setting priorities, simple living, and early retirement. A very frugal approach, but a great idea generator.

 The Little Book of Main Street Money by Jonathan Clements

The basics of making and following a sane financial plan

 The Little Book of Commonsense Investing by John Bogle

The case for passive index fund investing by the guy who started it all

 A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel

A more in depth and complex discussion of rational investing

 The Investor’s Manifesto by William Bernstein

Highly opinionated and thinks most of us are idiots. We are.

 The Power of Passive Investing and All About Asset Allocation both by Richard Ferri

More technical if you really want to get into the nuts and bolts of choosing investments

 Commonsense on Mutual Funds by John Bogle

If the Little Book left you wanting a big book

 All of these books contain some information or recommendations that I don’t completely agree with, but they are all solid, sensible works by people who know what they’re talking about. No specific investment advice is intended.

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