What’s a reasonable emergency fund?

 

The Great Wave of Kanagava.
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Sure we all know we should have some rainy-day savings, but for too many of us that’s spelled C-R-E-D-I-T C-A-R-D. Unfortunately, it’s very easy to lurch from crisis to crisis, racking up ever larger charges until the credit card bill itself becomes the emergency.  Every time I see an article on how much the fund should be, it’s usually a breathtaking amount. But really, how much is enough?

The standard CFP® exam question’s correct answer is usually some variant of three months if you’re married with a working spouse, have a trust fund, or a second job; and six months if you’re single, or married with a stay at home spouse. However, I would add to that six months’ recommendation a few other considerations: if you work in an industry or place where it would require major effort or relocation to get another job; if you have any health problems; if you’re over about 45; if you have no retirement savings; or if the economy remains in the toilet for much longer. In fact, some people are starting to recommend that you look at the current unemployment rate and save the equivalent number of months—9% unemployment, 9 months’ worth of savings.

Now that your heart has skipped a beat, let me tell you that you can safely reduce that amount somewhat by a few subtractions. Let’s say your gross is $100,000. That puts you in the 28% tax bracket if you’re single. With no other deductions your tax bite is going to be around $22K. I’m sure you have other deductions, but let’s just use this as an illustration. If you don’t have any income you’re not going to be paying any taxes, so take that off your gross. So, single person, we’re down to $77,878. Now, let’s say you were putting 5% in your 401K. No job, no 401K contribution–$72,878. I’m not going to tell you to reduce your grocery estimate, because if you’re unemployed for six months you’re going to need significant chocolate. However, being terrified, you probably will decide to eat out less and maybe not replace your entire wardrobe this year—let’s take another $1,500 off the total: $71,378: your six months’ emergency fund needs to be $35,689, not the $50,000 you thought I was saying at first gulp.

A general example never works for the specific. The emergency fund goal goes up or down depending on how you live your life now. If you’re already contributing the max to a 401K or other retirement plan, if you regularly fund a Roth, dump all your quarters into a mad money jar, in short, if you’re a big saver, replacing your necessities is a smaller number. If you would need to pay child support, buy your own health insurance, or your car is about to crap out, you need to adjust upward. If you’re self-employed, it’s six months at least plus GO GET DISABILITY INSURANCE.

I generally recommend you have an emergency fund of at least three months’ expenses BEFORE you start paying more than the minimum on any credit card debt repayment program. It’s better to pay the minimum balances and fund an emergency fund rather than have no or inadequate emergency funds and send a big payoff to the card. Why? Because without an emergency stash you’ll never get out of debt—something will inevitable come up, and back it goes onto the card. Pay cash and you’ve still got the same credit card debt; no cash and the debt just revolves–no matter how much you send, new stuff keeps getting added.

Where to put this cash? You need immediate access to it, so it needs to be in a checking account, a bank savings account, or a money market fund that you can write checks on. When you do manage to build it up to six months, you might consider putting 3 months’ worth in a 3 month CD at the highest rate you can scavenge locally or through an internet bank. Just in case you might need all the money at once, make sure the CD seller would only ding you on interest, not penalties or principal loss.

Saving six months’ worth of expenses isn’t an instant achievement—if you’re just starting out, it can take you three years or more at a 10% savings rate. I’d propose that any found money also go into this account: here’s where your tax refund (which you shouldn’t be getting), your bonus check, the computer rebates you actually remembered to collect, or the $200 you got for writing an article or making a presentation should go. I’d even suggest that it’s worth some kind of second job or seasonal or short term gig to build that fund. You can blow that stuff later when you have the fund funded. Right now, it’s the best thing you can do for your future security.

 

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Goals! resolutions, not so much

 

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I don’t have time for resolutions, but if I did, probably the first one would be to slow down a little. But like most of us, I’m always looking over my shoulder to see whether the bill collectors, overdue work tasks, needs of my kid-dog-cats-friends, excess pounds, etc. are catching up with me. Generally, they’ve outrun me. However, there is something I do every year during the last week of December (and finish up the first week of January, because, well, I’m late again).

I write down goals and I write myself an evaluation of the past year’s goals. I urge you to consider trying this—it’s not the goals, it’s the writing it down that matters. Why? Because too many of us get into trouble, financially and otherwise, by the natural human tendency to avoid the bad news.  I would love to find that if I ignore things, they would go away. While this occasionally works with a part of the junk in my in-box, in general ignoring things or failing to face them causes them to grow into much bigger problems. To whit: ignore thinking about your retirement and along about 55 you’ll have a huge and nearly intractable problem. Ignore the real cost of your house, your car, or your children’s education and you’ll give yourself a whopping headache if not a full blown disaster.

Even if you think there’s nothing you can do, writing goals down forces you to 1)face the facts, 2)gather your records,  3)see what needs solving and 4)if you’re lucky, gain some insight and ideas. I can still hear one of my professors intoning, “Goals must be measurable: set objectives which can be evaluated.” He was speaking of governments (and ours could use that advice), but it’s a good policy personally. So, for example, don’t set a goal of saving more. Set a goal to save 10% (or 5% or $10) from each pay period. Better yet, set it up to be automatically withdrawn from your check or bank account.

One of my goals is to automate everything possible.  Since I often feel that my head will explode from details, I’m trying to make a good decision once, and then ensure that that decision operates on its own, with no further choice from me. So, in the financial world, if you automate your savings, you have some likelihood of actually having money to invest down the road. Then, you set your “investment policy”—the right mix of investments designed to get you to your financial goals. And once you’ve thought that through (perhaps with your financial advisor), you automate THAT—with rebalancing out of all the crummy investments and into a decent mix. From that point on, you’re automated and you know where to put savings, and you won’t be prey to the newest hot idea from your neighborhood stock broker, insurance agent, or other commissioned salesperson trolling for suckers.

Resolutions generally engender guilt, but that has little place in real achievement. I evaluate last year not to beat myself up on the (inevitably) huge amount of goals that were not met, but to try to understand why they did not come about, what could be done to improve in the future, and to get better at allocating time and resources. I firmly believe in dreaming big, and am happy to see, each year, that there is a satisfying amount of things that were achieved. Also, I break down goals into business, financial, personal, and family, and I can get a good picture of what has been given too much attention, and what, not enough.

So, take a look. Whatever you’re avoiding probably isn’t going away. On the other hand, making a plan wrests some control away from random forces and into your hands. We can’t fix everything, but we can control the stuff that depends on our own efforts. Make that effort and best wishes for a prosperous new year.

 

 

Top financial books

BERLIN, GERMANY - AUGUST 25:  Books for guests...

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It’s the holiday season and you’ll probably get a ton of books, but here’s a few you should buy for yourself, or better yet, get them out of the library. I guarantee you’ll be in better financial shape this time next year if you read a few of these. Am I afraid that you’ll know so much it’ll put me out of business? No—the more you know, the more a planner can help you customize the information to your individual situation and specific goals. So, curl up and read as you make your new year’s resolutions.

Your Money or Your Life by Joe Dominguez & Vicki Robin

Primer on setting priorities, simple living, and early retirement. A very frugal approach, but a great idea generator.

 The Little Book of Main Street Money by Jonathan Clements

The basics of making and following a sane financial plan

 The Little Book of Commonsense Investing by John Bogle

The case for passive index fund investing by the guy who started it all

 A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel

A more in depth and complex discussion of rational investing

 The Investor’s Manifesto by William Bernstein

Highly opinionated and thinks most of us are idiots. We are.

 The Power of Passive Investing and All About Asset Allocation both by Richard Ferri

More technical if you really want to get into the nuts and bolts of choosing investments

 Commonsense on Mutual Funds by John Bogle

If the Little Book left you wanting a big book

 All of these books contain some information or recommendations that I don’t completely agree with, but they are all solid, sensible works by people who know what they’re talking about. No specific investment advice is intended.

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