What the Emmys can teach us about financial planning

 

NASA Television 2009 Philo T. Farnsworth Prime...

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I’ll ‘fess up and admit I didn’t watch the whole thing—instead I scared myself so much watching Wallander that I was afraid to take the dog out. However, I couldn’t resist taking a peek at the dresses on the New York Times’ Style app this morning. So I’ll try to link to specific examples.

If you’re going naked, you probably should be under 35.

Naked was a big look at the Emmys (isn’t it always), but this time it was transparent, or what passed for it. I thought Zooey Deschanel looked great. Similarly, if you’re going naked in investments (i.e. all stocks) you should be very young—enjoy the benefits and the risks while you can.

No matter that you were once a cute young thing, at some point it’s time to revise your style.

There’s a point where fresh has an expiration date. As you move through the decades, you need to tone done the risk and get some sophistication. Jessica Lange, I love you but you need sleeves. Or maybe, bonds.

No matter how good it looked on paper, make sure it’s right for your individual situation.

The dress shouldn’t wear you (Julianna Margulies). Your goals should drive the investment plan, no matter what the latest investment guru formula says.

Take a long, hard look at who you really are.

I hope Christina Hendricks decides to get a second opinion in the future. There’s a difference between sexy and porn queen. No one should squeeze you into an investment situation that’s not right for your individual needs. Get professional help, and then think critically about the advice.

Some styles are timeless.

This vintage Valentino on Gretchen Mohl would have looked great in 1960, 1970, 1980, or Pericles’s Athens. Don’t fall for the currently fashionable crap: my best candidates for that category are hedge funds, managed futures, non-traded REITS, …I’ll never run out. Run, as soon as you hear the words “this time it’s different”. No, it’s not, whether it’s good taste or good investments.

Act on what you say you believe.

Between the recent Jay Leno appearance and the Emmys, I’ve seen way more of Amy Poehler’s boobs than I ever needed to. C’mon, she’s a middle aged mom, reasonably intelligent comedienne, and runs an organization to encourage girls to have positive body images. And this is what she wears? If you say you believe in passive managed index mutual funds, why is your portfolio filled with “hot” managers and individual stocks? You know better, don’t you? And, BTW, don’t completely lose your dignity when getting a divorce.

I could go on—get a decent dye job, not one that looks like India ink; don’t open your shirt past your chest hair if you have a wrinkly neck (that one’s for the guys), etc., but I’ve already used up my catty allotment for today. Meow.

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Getting things straight: about Bill Clinton and asset allocation

One of the principles of a blog is that it’s supposed to be regular and I mostly get that, but phew! the last few weeks. First, there was the college drop off of my dearest beloved child (and the shoveling out of the remains of her room), the usual medical and veterinary crises, and a conference or two, mixed in with just about everyone in Northern Illinois deciding to finally get their financial life in order and call me (which I am definitely NOT complaining about). It’s been a busy few weeks. But in between time I watched the political conventions and now I, like everyone else, think I could do better on policy. At least in one area.

To be honest, I didn’t watch the one (very much) that featured Scarecrow and the Tin Man, but I had to tune in to watch Bill Clinton work that old black magic. He’s getting pretty grey now, but honestly he’s the only man who has ever held the job that I can actually imagine anyone ever wanting to date. Barack looks like excellent husband material, but if you really want to get in trouble on a Saturday night, Bill was certainly the go-to guy. But I digress. What this post is actually about is asset allocation. Lost you right there? Wait!

Because it’s now or not-until-next year for their 401ks, most people who have called me lately want to talk about what investments they actually should have selected instead of that target fund they picked when they couldn’t decipher the other offerings. If all you have is the 401k, the target fund may not be such a bad choice. But no, 99.99% of people I work with have a bigger coin collection.

You’ve probably got a 401k (or two, or three, depending on how many jobs you’ve held). Maybe you taught or worked for a non-profit, so a 403b is lurking around somewhere. In a burst of frugality, I’ll bet you opened (and maybe continued to add to) an IRA, maybe a Roth, and if you had a side gig or self-employment, you probably collected money in a SEP-IRA. If your income increased over the years, you’re probably not allowed to add to some of these any more, and you might also have a plain old mutual fund account or brokerage that our beloved IRS is happy to collect taxes on.  So when I see all the internet advice on “proper asset allocation” and “tax-smart investing”, I realize it’s just about as much a fantasy for most of us as keeping our houses clean, our dresser drawers neat, and our dogs brushed.

I spent about 7.5 hours yesterday trying to sort out a client’s accounts and move around the large collection of investments to a coherent plan they could manage, understand, and withdraw from. If I’d have actually billed them for the amount of time it took, at least one of them would have croaked and I’d be talking to the remaining one about settling the estate. And when I present these things, the client’s eyes just glaze over. Sure you can simplify, dear client, but that probably means cutting down your 15 or 16 accounts to 8. One solution, of course, is that they sign up for professional ongoing management, but they’re trying to be frugal and handle it, and I support that and really want to help. Truth is, it’s hard and it took me a good long time to learn to do asset allocation properly—and I began investing 30 years ago and the books I’ve studied on the topic are bending several shelves in my bookcase.

I have another solution, and it’s political. Why can’t we just have national retirement accounts? You get one—if you have a generous employer, they can match your contribution. If you make under $X, your contributions are deductible, otherwise, no. If you’re self employed, maybe you get to contribute a little more. You choose the investments and where to house the account. There’s a default option (maybe a target fund) and a default deduction (if employed). All these different programs, deductible, non-deductible, different income thresholds, different contribution limits, rollovers—well, it’s just plain crazy. Maybe accountants and financial planners get plenty of business out of this, but it’s crazy making for the investor.

With my idea (which admittedly needs flesh on the bones) many middle to moderately affluent citizens (maybe even the rich guys, though Mitt would find a way to beat it) would end up with one, maybe two accounts: retirement and maybe regular investing/savings/brokerage. So much easier to get reasonable diversity without trying to spread out choices among seven or eight accounts. You might actually be able to see what you have. You wouldn’t lose track of it when you changed jobs, or be tempted to cash in the seemingly small sum (no. no. no.) And when retirement comes, you could have a rational withdrawal plan that would be manageable as you age.

Now, I’m not trying to privatize social security (omigod people can’t even invest decently under the system we have. What a nightmare.) or advocating a flat tax because then I’d probably have gone over to the dark side, er, become a Republican. But isn’t there anyone in at least one of the parties that could think a little bit about coming up with a streamlined way for most of us who want to save for retirement to actually do that without using up most of our precious remaining grey cells?

Until that happens, I’m here to help. It ain’t easy and you’re not dumb if it isn’t crystal clear on the first run-through. Maybe after the dust settles, retirement savings could get some attention? After we get done worrying about where Barack was born.

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Social Security—Take the money and run?

 

English: A bag of money, US dollars, spinning ...

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If I had a euro for every time I’ve heard Social Security is going broke, I’d have decamped to Paris by now and wouldn’t be dispensing all this sage financial advice. C’mon guys and gals, if you’re old enough to even think about collecting Social Security (exception being my 18 year old who worries about this stuff), it’s going to be around for you. So then it comes down to—when to collect. Lately several people have posed the idea that they will collect it at 62 or 66 and invest the money instead of spending it. Aside from the fact that I’ll believe it when I see it, here’s a look at whether you’d actually be ahead. Sure, my example is filled with assumptions that you can disagree with, but play along here for a moment.

So let’s say you’re single, 60 years old, have an average annual salary of $100,000, and your full retirement age is 66. (It’s way more complicated for couples, so I’m not even going to get into that here. Call your friendly local financial planner—me!) Using the nifty little free estimator at AARP, your benefit would be $1,911/month at 62 ($22,932/year); $2,548 at 66 ($30,576/year); and $3,363 at 70 ($40,356/year). Okay, we agreed you’re not going to spend one penny of that money you start collecting at age 62, but are going to invest it in a half-way decent portfolio of no-load mutual funds that averages, let’s be generous in today’s market, 8% return. So on the face of it, you’ll have $255,822 more at 70, right? Nice chunk of change, no? Not so fast…

At a safe withdrawal rate from your savings of, oh, 4% a year from 70 onwards, your added portfolio will give you an extra $10,232.88 per year, or about $853 per month. So instead of collecting $3,363 from Social Security at 70, you’ll have an income of $2,764 per month—you’ve cost yourself $599 per month. That buys a lot of cat food.

Let’s say you collect Social Security at 66 instead—four years of saving and the same 8% return. Now your extra cache is $107,685. At that same 4% withdrawal rate, you’ve got $4,307.38 per year, or about $359/month, giving you a total of $2,270 per month, instead of the $2,548 you would have had. Maybe $278 isn’t that much, but multiply it over a 30 year retirement–better die quick.

But wait, it’s even worse. Social Security is adjusted for inflation. Your investments aren’t. So your actual Social Security payment is likely to be more, and the spending power of your savings is  less ($101,014 at 66, $223,629 at 70, assuming 3% inflation). And oh-oh, you have to pay taxes on that Social Security if you’re still working. And taxes on your investment returns, unless they’re in a tax sheltered account. Another big hit. .I don’t think I need to run through any more numbers for you to see why not only do financial planners beg you not to take benefits at 62, but we really like to see you wait until 70, unless you have some serious medical problem that makes a different strategy compelling.

Just. Don’t. Do. It.

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